North Carolina – PollyVote

North Carolina: Clinton tied with Trump in new NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena poll

Results of a new poll carried out by NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena were spread. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena poll results

Clinton

Trump

The results show that billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted from November 4 to November 6. A total of 800 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton currently runs at 49.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.

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North Carolina: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Quinnipiac poll

Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were published on November 1. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Quinnipiac poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 27 to November 1 among 602 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. For comparison: 53.2% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on October 26, for Trump this result was only 46.8%.

Results vs. other polls

An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

North Carolina: Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in latest Quinnipiac poll

Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Quinnipiac poll results

Clinton

Trump

According to the results, 48.0% of participants indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between November 3 and November 6. The sample size was 870 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. On October 26 Clinton obtained 53.2% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump obtained only 46.8%.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

North Carolina: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 50.6% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump in North Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

North Carolina: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.6% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 49.4%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to gain only 50.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

North Carolina: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump in North Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in North Carolina. This value is 50.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Crosstab model. The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points lower.

Crosstab model: Clinton tied with Trump in North Carolina

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton and Trump will each receive 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% and Trump 49.5% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.5 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina.

Crosstab model in North Carolina: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.8% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 49.2%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to collect 48.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

North Carolina: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Remington Research (R) poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22, among a random sample of 1764 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.3 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Trump currently runs at 48.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 3.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.

North Carolina: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Remington Research (R) poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between October 30 and October 30. The sample size was 1176 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Trump can currently count on 48.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.