Emerson poll in Missouri: Clinton trails by 15 points

Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were announced on November 1. The poll asked participants from Missouri for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results
37

Clinton

52

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 37.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 52.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between October 28 and October 31. The sample size was 650 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 41.6% for Clinton and 58.4% for Trump. In the latest Emerson poll on September 13 Clinton obtained 42.0%, while Trump obtained only 58.0%.

Results vs. other polls

An average of recent polls in Missouri sees Trump at 56.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Missouri: New Emerson poll shows Trump with 6 points lead

Emerson published the results of a new poll on November 1. In this poll, respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results
41

Clinton

47

Trump

The results show that 41.0% of participants plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from November 4 to November 5, among a random sample of 750 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on September 13 Clinton obtained only 42.0%, while Trump obtained 58.0%.

Results vs. other polls

Trump currently achieves 55.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Missouri. Compared to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 1.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Missouri: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 44.8% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 55.2%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Missouri: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.8% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will win 55.2%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to win only 44.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Missouri: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 44.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will win 55.6%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to garner 55.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 0.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Missouri. Relative to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 55.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.9% for Clinton, and 55.1% for Trump in Missouri. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to obtain 54.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Missouri: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 45.3% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 54.7%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win only 45.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 45.3% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will end up with 54.7%. In comparison, on October 28 Trump was still predicted to garner 55.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.2% for Clinton, and 54.8% for Trump in Missouri. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to garner 54.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 45.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will end up with 54.6%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was still predicted to gain 55.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.