Jerome model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 60.8% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will win 39.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Maryland econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland, which is 3.5 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Jerome model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 60.8% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 39.2%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 59.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 61.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Maryland. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland, which is 3.5 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 61.4% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will end up with 38.6%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to gain 39.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Maryland has Clinton at 60.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.1% in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.