DeSart model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 69.9% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to win 33.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 3.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 68.3% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will end up with 31.7%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Hawaii: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 66.6% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 33.4%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to win only 65.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Hawaii: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 65.6% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 34.4%. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was still predicted to obtain 35.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 65.6 percentage points worse.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 12.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Hawaii: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 68.3% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 31.7%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Hawaii. This value is 68.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart & Holbrook model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 15.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 64.2% for Clinton, and 35.8% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to gain 35.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 69.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 5.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 69.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Hawaii: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 64.7% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 35.3%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to achieve 35.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 69.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 29.9%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 70.1% of the two-party vote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.