Georgia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton, and 52.2% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to garner 51.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.4% for Clinton, and 51.6% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was still predicted to achieve 51.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.3% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, whereas Trump will end up with 51.7%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect only 47.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.9% for Clinton, and 52.1% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Georgia econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 52.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model. The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton, and 52.2% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to collect 51.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, while Trump will win 52.2%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to win 51.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Georgia: Comfortable lead for Trump in latest WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA*WXIA/SUSA* poll

Results of a new poll conducted by WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Georgia for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll results
42

Clinton

49

Trump

The results show that 42.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 25 to October 27, among a random sample of 593 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump. In the latest WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll on July 31 Clinton obtained 47.7%, while Trump obtained only 52.3%.

Results compared to other polls

Trump currently achieves 51.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Georgia. In comparison to his numbers in the WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll Trump's poll average is 2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 48.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.5% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, whereas Trump will win 51.5%. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to gain 48.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Georgia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.4% for Clinton, and 51.6% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 48.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.