Florida: Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Emerson poll

Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Emerson poll results
46

Clinton

45

Trump

The results show that 46.0% of participants will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between October 26 and October 27. The sample size was 500 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.3 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 50.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump in Florida.

In Florida, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: New Dixie Strategies*Dixie Strategies* poll shows Clinton behind by 4 points

Results of a new poll carried out by Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In Florida, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies poll results
42

Clinton

46

Trump

Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 25 to October 26 with 698 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.8% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida poll

Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

In Florida, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida poll results
46

Clinton

44

Trump

According to the results, 46.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between October 20 and October 25. The sample size was 819 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 51.0% of the vote.

In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Bloomberg poll

Bloomberg released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

In Florida, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Bloomberg poll results
45

Clinton

46

Trump

Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 21 to October 24, among a random sample of 953 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Trump currently runs at 49.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 48.6% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will win 49.0%. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.1% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Clinton tied with Trump in latest Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Historically, Florida has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Remington Research (R) poll results
46

Clinton

46

Trump

The results show that businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have the same level of support, each with 46.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 among 1646 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.4 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 51.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Florida. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.8 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% and Trump 48.6% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll

Bay News 9/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll results
48

Clinton

45

Trump

According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 24. A total of 1251 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. On June 27 Clinton received 52.3% in the Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll and Trump received only 47.7%.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 51.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. Relative to her numbers in the Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 48.9%. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.8% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they often include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.