Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 52.3%. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll in Arizona: Trump with 5 points lead

On October 24, NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
41

Clinton

46

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between October 30 and November 1. The sample size was 719 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 47.1% for Clinton and 52.9% for Trump. In the most recent NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on September 8 Clinton obtained 49.4%, while Trump obtained only 50.6%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Arizona sees Trump at 52.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Trump's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.0 point below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 51.9%. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to collect only 47.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may include large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts. The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.7% for Clinton, and 52.3% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 47.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.6% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 52.4%. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to gain 48.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 52.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 52.0%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win 48.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.3% for Clinton, and 51.7% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain 48.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.5% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will win 51.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.4% for Clinton, and 51.6% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to collect 51.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 51.4%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to gain 51.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data. The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.