Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.7%. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 48.6% of the vote.

In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 51.4%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 48.5% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 50.9%.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have often achieved similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.5% for Clinton, and 51.5% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to obtain 51.4% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Ohio econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 51.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Ohio: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win 49.2% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.8% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 51.2%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to collect 49.2% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Ohio: 5 points lead for Trump in latest Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Remington Research (R) poll results
43

Clinton

48

Trump

Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30 with 1187 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.