Iowa: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.9% for Clinton, and 51.1% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Iowa: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.0% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 51.0%. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was still predicted to collect 51.6% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Iowa: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 49.4%.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Iowa: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.4% for Clinton, and 51.6% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to gain 51.1% of the vote.

In Iowa, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Iowa econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. Relative to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 51.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Des Moines Register poll in Iowa: Trump with 4 points lead

On November 2, Des Moines Register released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Iowa were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Iowa is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Des Moines Register poll results
39

Clinton

43

Trump

The results show that 39.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 6 with 642 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls may incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Iowa has Trump at 51.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Des Moines Register poll Trump's poll average is 0.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.2% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 50.8%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain 49.5% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 50.9%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win 49.5% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Iowa: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.6% for Clinton, and 50.4% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to achieve 49.7% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.5% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 50.5%. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to obtain 50.4% of the vote.

In Iowa, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.