Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.8% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 49.2%.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.8% for Clinton, and 49.2% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.0% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump in Florida.

In Florida, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.9% for Clinton, and 49.1% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was still predicted to achieve 49.4% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 50.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model: Clinton tied with Trump in Florida

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate winning 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to obtain 49.2% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 0.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.3% for Clinton, and 49.7% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to win 49.2% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Clinton tied with Trump in latest Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Remington Research (R) poll results
46

Clinton

46

Trump

The results show that billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on identical levels of support, each with 46.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 among 1646 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. If we look at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.3% and Trump 48.7% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 1.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Remington Research (R) poll in Florida: Trump with 4 points lead

Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Remington Research (R) poll results
44

Clinton

48

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30, among a random sample of 989 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Florida sees Trump at 50.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.9% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to gain only 51.1% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a purple state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.8% for Clinton, and 49.2% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.1% of the vote.

In Florida, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.