Variable 36 in Trump's bio-index was coded incorrectly. Trump's brother Freddy died from alcoholism in 1981, at age 41. Due to the variable recoding, the forecast has changed. The updated vote-share forecasts are 58.3% for Clinton and 41.7% for Trump. This is the highest forecast for...
Index models
After months of no issue polls, an ABC News/Washington Post survey finally provides information about how people rate the candidates' ability to handle the issues. In particular, the survey asked participants whom of either Clinton.
You can now compute your own forecasts based on the bio-index model, which predicts the election outcome based on information about candidates' biographies. This feature allows you See how the.