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Bio-index model update: Clinton now at 58.3%

Variable 36 in Trump’s bio-index was coded incorrectly. Trump’s brother Freddy died from alcoholism in 1981, at age 41. Due to the variable recoding, the forecast has changed.

The updated vote-share forecasts are 58.3% for Clinton and 41.7% for Trump. This is the highest forecast for Clinton of all components aggregated in the PollyVote.

Issue models turn in Democrats’ favor

After months of no issue polls, an ABC News/Washington Post survey finally provides information about how people rate the candidates’ ability to handle the issues. In particular, the survey asked participants whom of either Clinton or Trump they would expect to do a better job in handling four issues: terrorism (which is currently seen as the most important issue), the economy, immigration, and a potential international crisis.

Participants strongly favored Clinton on all four issues (see Figure). In comparison, prior surveys that asked people to compare Clinton to a generic Republican candidate tended to favor the Republicans. In addition to the bio-index model, this provides further support for the notion that Trump would likely be a poor choice as a nominee for the Republican Party.

The results from the issue questions are used in two models, namely the issue-index and the big-issue models. While, prior to the release of the survey, both models predicted the Republicans to win the popular vote, their forecasts have turned. The issue-index model predicts the Democrats to gain 52.0% of the vote. The big-issue also favors the Democrats, despite predicting a closer race, at 50.6%.

 

Compute your own bio-index model forecast

You can now compute your own forecasts based on the bio-index model, which predicts the election outcome based on information about candidates’ biographies. This feature allows you

  1. See how the model forecast would change for different variable coding.
  2. Compare two hypothetical candidates against each other.
  3. See how you would perform as a candidate.

To do so, go to the bio-index model page, scroll all the way down to Table 1, and adjust the variable values in the green highlighted cells. Whenever you change a variable value, the forecast will be updated at the bottom of the table.