Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with February polling data. The most recent forecast favors the Republican candidates in hypothetical match-ups against both Clinton and Sanders. For the likely outcome.
Bruno and Véronique Jérôme updated their state-by-state political economy model. The model now predicts the Democrats to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote, compared to 50.8% for the Republicans. The.
Polly added the Primary model by Helmut Norpoth to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories and candidates' performance in early primaries. Assuming a Clinton-Trump race, the.
Polly added the long-range model by Jay DeSart to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories, national polling data as well as two variables that attempt.