Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with April polling data. The most recent forecast slightly favors Trump in a likely match-up against Clinton. In particular, the DeSart model predicts Trump to gain 50.9% of the vote, compared to 49.1% for Clinton. Trump is also predicted to win...
Econometric models
Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with February polling data. The most recent forecast favors the Republican candidates in hypothetical match-ups against both Clinton and Sanders. For the likely outcome.
Bruno and Véronique Jérôme updated their state-by-state political economy model. The model now predicts the Democrats to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote, compared to 50.8% for the Republicans. The.
Helmut Norpoth provided an update of his Primary model forecast. The initial forecast posted on February 27 relied on a polling data, not actual results, for the Democratic primary in South Carolina. Now that the results are in, which give Hillary Clinton a much bigger...
Polly added the Primary model by Helmut Norpoth to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories and candidates' performance in early primaries. Assuming a Clinton-Trump race, the.
Polly added the long-range model by Jay DeSart to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories, national polling data as well as two variables that attempt.