New citizen forecast predicts tight race: Clinton 50.5% vs Trump 49.5%

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll provided updated citizen forecasts. In the polls, people were asked: “Regardless of whom you support, if Clinton and Trump are the nominees for president, who would you expect to win: Clinton or Trump?” According to the results, 50% of respondents expected Clinton to win, whereas 40% predicted a Trump victory. Translating these results into two-party vote-shares yield a forecast of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for the Trump.

In comparison, the combined PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the popular two-party vote.

First citizen forecasts available: PollyVote now with forecasts from all six components

Polly added citizen forecasts as the sixth and final component method to its combined forecast. Citizen forecasts, also known as vote expectation surveys, are among the most accurate methods available for forecasting elections.

Citizen forecasts are derived from surveys that include the vote expectation question, which asks respondents who they expect to become president. For example, an  ABC News/Washington Post poll, published this week, asked: “Regardless of whom you support, if Clinton and Trump are the nominees for president, who would you expect to win: Clinton or Trump?” According to the results, 59% of respondents expected Clinton to win, whereas 36% predicted a Trump victory. Translating these results into two-party vote-shares yield a forecast of 51.6% for the Democrats and 48.4% for the Republicans. This is the information Polly uses for her the citizen forecasts component.

Adding the citizen forecasts had little immediate impact on the PollyVote, which currently predicts the Democrats to gain 52.5% of the popular two-party vote.