Bruno and Véronique Jérôme updated their state-by-state political economy model. The model now predicts the Democrats to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote, compared to 50.8% for the Republicans. The model forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of four percent. Interestingly, although...
Author: Andreas Graefe
Andreas has joined the PollyVote in 2007. He is a Professor of Management at Macromedia University in Munich. Andreas has published extensively on election forecasting. For more information see www.andreas-graefe.org.
The Pollyvote team has completed its third survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late February survey, conducted between February 26 and 29, fifteen experts responded. The forecasts for.
For some models, Polly now allows you to manipulate the variable values and compute your own model forecasts. For now, this is available for the Fair model and Lichtman's Keys.
Helmut Norpoth provided an update of his Primary model forecast. The initial forecast posted on February 27 relied on a polling data, not actual results, for the Democratic primary in South Carolina. Now that the results are in, which give Hillary Clinton a much bigger...
Polly added the Primary model by Helmut Norpoth to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories and candidates' performance in early primaries. Assuming a Clinton-Trump race, the.
Polly added the long-range model by Jay DeSart to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories, national polling data as well as two variables that attempt.
The results of the New Hampshire primary might look good for Donald Trump's prospects to win the Republican nomination. And yet, according to the PollyVote, the Democratic party is the real winner of yesterday's election. As a result of Trump taking back the lead in...
The Pollyvote team has completed its second survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late January survey, conducted between January 26 and 30, 17 academics from.
The Pollyvote team has completed its first survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late December survey, conducted between December 26 and 31, eight academics.
Today, the PollyVote published its first forecast for the 2016 election. Her first forecast of the national popular two-party vote predicts a virtual tie, with the Democrats at 50.1%, and the Republicans at 49.9% of the vote. The PollyVote first started in 2004 by political...