Polly added the long-range model by Jay DeSart to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories, national polling data as well as two variables that attempt to estimate next year’s election context. Assuming a Clinton-Trump race, the model's latest forecast predicts...
Author: Andreas Graefe
Andreas has joined the PollyVote in 2007. He is a Professor of Management at Macromedia University in Munich. Andreas has published extensively on election forecasting. For more information see www.andreas-graefe.org.
The results of the New Hampshire primary might look good for Donald Trump's prospects to win the Republican nomination. And yet, according to the PollyVote, the Democratic party is the.
The Pollyvote team has completed its second survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late January survey, conducted between January 26 and 30, 17 academics from.
The Pollyvote team has completed its first survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late December survey, conducted between December 26 and 31, eight academics from a variety of colleges and universities predicted that the Democrats will eke out a...
Today, the PollyVote published its first forecast for the 2016 election. Her first forecast of the national popular two-party vote predicts a virtual tie, with the Democrats at 50.1%, and.