PollyVote has completed the first round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 28.7%, nearly 6 points ahead of the Greens, which the experts see at 23.0%. The SPD is expected...
Author: Andreas Graefe
Andreas has joined the PollyVote in 2007. He is a Professor of Management at Macromedia University in Munich. Andreas has published extensively on election forecasting. For more information see www.andreas-graefe.org.
With the support of the APSA Political Forecasting Group, Bruno Jérôme and I are putting together a symposium of papers on “Forecasting the 2021 German Elections”, which will be published in PS:.
As in previous elections since 2004, PollyVote once again did a very good job in predicting the popular vote. In its final forecast, the PollyVote predicted that Joe Biden will.
PollyVote's work for this election cycle is done. Here is an overview of the final forecasts, and how they have developed over time. National vote According to the PollyVote, it is virtually certain that Joe Biden will win most votes. The final forecast is that...
The PollyVote has completed its ninth and final survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from October 31 to November 2nd, twelve political science professors.
The PollyVote has completed its eight survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from October 21-23, eleven political science professors from a variety of U.S..
The PollyVote has completed its seventh survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from October 7-9, twelve political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden is likely to win the electoral college andwill win the popular...
The Pollyvote has completed its sixth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from September 16-18, eleven political science professors from a variety of U.S..
The Pollyvote has completed its fifth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from August 18-22, eleven political science professors from a variety.
The Pollyvote has completed its fourth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from July 21-24, twelve political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by ten points....