PollyVote
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Research on combining forecasts

  1. Graefe, A. (2019). Accuracy of German federal election forecasts, 2013 & 2017. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(3), 868-877.
  2. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). Assessing the 2016 U.S. presidential election popular vote forecasts. In A. Cavari, R. Powell & K. Mayer (Eds.), The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, pp. 137-158.
  3. Graefe, A. (2017). The PollyVote’s long-term forecast for the 2017 German federal election. PS: Political Science & Politics,50(3), 693-696.
  4. Campbell, J. E., Norpoth, H., Abramowitz, A. I., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Tien, C., Erikson, R. S., Wlezien, C., Lockerbie, B., Holbrook, T. M., Jerôme, B., Jerôme-Speziari, V., Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts. PS: Political Science & Politics, 50(2), 331-338.
  5. Graefe, A., Jones, R. J. J., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2016). The PollyVote forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election. PS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 687-690.
  6. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). Assessing the 2016 U.S. presidential election popular vote forecasts. In A. Cavari, R. Powell & K. Mayer (Eds.), The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, pp. 137-158.
  7. Graefe, A. (2017). The PollyVote’s long-term forecast for the 2017 German federal election. PS: Political Science & Politics, 50(3), 693-696.
  8. Campbell, J. E., Norpoth, H., Abramowitz, A. I., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Tien, C., Erikson, R. S., Wlezien, C., Lockerbie, B., Holbrook, T. M., Jerôme, B., Jerôme-Speziari, V., Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts. PS: Political Science & Politics, 50(2), 331-338.
  9. Graefe, A., Jones, R. J. J., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2016). The PollyVote forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election. PS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 687-690.
  10. Graefe, A. (2015). German election forecasting: Comparing and combining methods for 2013. German Politics, 24(2), 195-204. [Replication data available here.]
  11. Graefe, A. (2015). Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes. Research & Politics, 2(1), 1-5. [Replication data available here.]
  12. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2014). Combining forecasts: An application to elections, International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54. [Replication data available here.]
  13. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Cuzán, A. G. & Jones, R. J. Jr. (2014). Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 presidential elections: The PollyVote, PS: Political Science & Politics, 47(2), 427-431. [Replication data available here.]
  14. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2013). Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote, Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 28, 50-51.
  15. Graefe, A., Jones, R. J. Jr., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2012). The PollyVote’s year-ahead forecast of the 2012 U.S. presidential election, Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 24, 13-14.
  16. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2009). Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The PollyVote, Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 12, 41-42.
  17. Cuzán, A. G., Armstrong, J. S. & Jones, R. J. Jr. (2005). The Pollyvote: Applying the Combination Principle in Forecasting to the 2004 Presidential Election, Paper presented at the 2005 International Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio.
  18. Cuzán, A. G., Armstrong, J. S. & Jones, R. J. Jr. (2005). How we computed the PollyVote. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 1, 51-52.

Further research on election forecasting

  1. Graefe, A., Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2019). Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries. PloS one, 14(1), e0209850.
  2. Graefe, A. (2018). Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals. Judgment and Decision Making, 13(4), 334-344.
  3. Graefe, A. (2017). Political markets. In K. Arzheimer, J. Evans & M. S. Lewis-Beck (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, Volume 2 (pp. 861-882). London: Sage.
  4. Graefe, A. (2017). Prediction market performance in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2017(45), 38-41.
  5. Graefe, A. (2016). Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump. Research & Politics, 10.1177/2053168016679364.
  6. Graefe, A. (2016). Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys. Electoral Studies, 42, 222-228.
  7. Graefe, A. (2015). Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors. Journal of Business Research, 68(8), 1792-1799. [Replication data available here.]
  8. Graefe, A. (2014). Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections, Public Opinion Quarterly, 78(S1), 204-232. [Replication data available here.]
  9. Graefe, A., & Armstrong, J. S. (2014). Forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election based on candidates’ perceived competence in handling the most important issue. Political Science Research and Methods, 2(1), 141-149.
  10. Graefe, A., Küchenhoff, H., Stierle, V. & Riedl, B. (2015). Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for forecasting social science problems. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3), 943-951.
  11. Graefe, A. (2013). Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections. Electoral Studies, 32(4), 644-657.
  12. Jones, Randall J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2013). Expert judgment in forecasting American presidential elections: A preliminary evaluation, 2013 APSA Annual Meeting Paper.
  13. Graefe, A., & Armstrong, J. S. (2013). Forecasting elections from voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle issues. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 26(3), 295-303.
  14. Graefe, A., & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(1), 41-48.
  15. Armstrong, J. S. & Graefe, A. (2011). Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates, Journal of Business Research, 64, 699-706.
  16. Cuzán, A. G. (2008). Predicting the results of the 2010 midterm Elections: Judgment, econometrics, and prediction markets, Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 21, 41-44.
  17. Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Who should be nominated to run in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election? Long-term forecasts based on candidates’ biographies, 2011 APSA Annual Meeting Paper.
  18. Cuzán, A. G. & Bundrick, C. M. (2009). Predicting presidential elections with equally weighted regressors in Fair’s equation and the fiscal model. Political Analysis 17(3), 333-340.
  19. Jones, R. J. Jr. (2008). The state of presidential election forecasting: The 2004 experience. International Journal of Forecasting 24(2), 310-321.
  20. Jones, R. J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2008). Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review. Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 10, 29-34.
  21. Jones, R. J. Jr., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2007). Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections, 2007 APSA Annual Meeting Paper.
  22. Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2006). Index methods for forecasting: An application to American presidential elections. Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 3, 10-13.
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