Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were announced on November 1. The poll asked participants from Missouri for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 37.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 52.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 28 and October 31. The sample size was 650 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 41.6% for Clinton and 58.4% for Trump. In the latest Emerson poll on September 13 Clinton obtained 42.0%, while Trump obtained only 58.0%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri sees Trump at 56.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is significant.