The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Utah.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.