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French presidential election: Experts diverge from polls with respect to Valérie Pécresse’s chances against President Macron


PollyVote has completed its January expert survey for this year’s French presidential election. With respect to the first round results, the expert consensus is pretty much in line with recent polls in that President Macron is likely to gain most of the votes. When it comes to the question of who will come in second, both forecasting methods expect a tight race between Marine Le Pen and Valérie Pécresse. While polls have Le Pen and Pécresse virtually tied, the combined expert forecast predicts a slight advantage for Pécresse.

With respect to the second round, PollyVote asked the expert panel to predict the outcomes of both hypothetical matchups. For a potential Macron-Le Pen matchup, experts and polls are in line and predict a rather comfortable 12-point margin for President Macron.

In case Macron would face Pécresse, however, polls and expert consensus diverge. While the polls also expect a Macron win (54% vs. 46%), the current expert consensus expects a very close race, with a slight advantage for Valérie Pécresse.

Once a month, the experts forecast the vote shares of the first round in this year's French presidential election, as well as the outcomes of hypothetical matchups. Five experts participated in the second round of the survey, which was conducted from January 18-21. The PollyVote team would like to thank Bruno Cautres (Sciences Po), Jean-Sébastien Ferjou (Atlantico), Mathieu Gallard (Ipsos), Bruno Jeanbart (Opinion Way), and Nicolas Prissette (Fondamental).

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