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Final expert survey: Experts predict a dead heat between SPD and CSU/CSU in run for strongest party


PollyVote has completed the fifth and final round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect a dead heat, with SPD gaining 24.2% of the vote, slightly ahead of the CDU/CSU, which is predicted to gain 23.6% of the vote. The Greens are expected to come in third (16.7%), followed by FDP (11.2%) and AfD (10.8%), who are virtually tied for fourth place. The Left (6.6%) is also expected to pass the 5%-electoral threshold. The predicted vote share for all other parties combined is 6.8 points.

Once a month, the experts forecast the vote shares of the respective parties in the federal election on September 26. A total of 19 experts participated in the fifth round of the survey, which was conducted from September 21-24. The PollyVote team would like to thank:

  1. Prof. Dr. Kai Arzheimer
  2. Prof. Dr. Joachim Behnke
  3. Dr. Evelyn Bytzek
  4. Prof. Dr. Marc Debus
  5. Prof. Dr. Martin Elff
  6. Prof. Dr. Simon Tobias Franzmann
  7. Prof. Dr. Oscar Gabriel
  8. Prof. Dr. Achim Goerres
  9. Prof. Dr. Max Kaase
  10. Dr. Michael Meffert
  11. Prof. Dr. Dieter Roth
  12. Prof. Dr. Peter Schrott
  13. Dr. Martin Steinbrecher
  14. Prof. Dr. Andreas Wüst
  15. Prof. Dr. Thomas Zittel

as well as four experts who preferred to remain anonymous.

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