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Expert survey: SPD gains more than three points at the cost of CDU/CSU


PollyVote has completed the fourth round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts still expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 26.6% of the vote. However, the party lost 3.4 percentage points compared to the last survey round in July. For the first time, the expert forecast now has the SPD in second place with 19.9% of the vote (a gain of 3.3 points), slightly ahead of the Greens (19.6%, down from 20.4%). The FDP are at 11.1%, the AfD at 10.5%, and the Left Party at 6.8%. The predicted vote share for all other parties combined is 5.8 points.


Once a month, the experts forecast the vote shares of the respective parties in the federal election on September 26. A total of 19 experts participated in the fourth round of the survey, which was conducted from August 16-19. The PollyVote team would like to thank:

  1. Prof. Dr. Joachim Behnke
  2. Dr. Evelyn Bytzek
  3. Prof. Dr. Marc Debus
  4. Prof. Dr. Martin Elff
  5. Prof. Dr. Simon Tobias Franzmann
  6. Prof. Dr. Oscar Gabriel
  7. Prof. Dr. Achim Goerres
  8. Dr. Alexander Jedinger
  9. Prof. Dr. Max Kaase
  10. Dr. Michael Meffert
  11. Prof. Dr. Dieter Roth
  12. Prof. Dr. Peter Schrott
  13. Dr. Martin Steinbrecher
  14. Prof. Dr. Andreas Wüst
  15. Prof. Dr. Thomas Zittel

as well as four experts who preferred to remain anonymous.

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