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PollyVote expert panel gives Trump a 32% chance of winning

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The Pollyvote has completed its sixth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from September 16-18, eleven political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by roughly six points. 

Popular vote forecast remains unchanged

The mean forecast is that Biden will garner 53.2% of the popular two-party vote, compared to 46.8% for President Trump. All experts expected Biden to win the popular vote, with his margin of victory ranging from three to nine points. This estimate is virtually unchanged from the previous round.

Biden seen as likely winner

For the first time, PollyVote also asked panelists to estimate the probability that Trump will win the electoral college. On average, the experts give Trump a 32% chance to get reelected, with individual estimates ranging from 10% to 53%. In other words, experts currently regard Biden as the likely winner.1

PollyVote thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Andrea Benjamin (University of Oklahoma)
  2. Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
  3. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  4. Sarah Fulton (Texas A&M University)
  5. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  6. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  7. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  8. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  9. Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)
  10. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  11. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)

1 PollyVote treats probabilities as follows:

  • 50 to 65: even chance for both candidates
  • 66 to 89: likely to win
  • 90 to 94: very likely to win
  • 95 to 98: extremely likely to win
  • >= 99: virtually certain to win
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