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Biden ahead by roughly six points in August expert survey


The Pollyvote has completed its fifth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from August 18-22, eleven political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by roughly six points.

The mean forecast is that Biden will garner 53.2% of the popular two-party vote, compared to 46.8% for President Trump. All but one experts expected Biden to win the popular vote, while one predicted that Trump will win the most votes. In the previous survey back in mid-July, the expert predicted that Biden would win by roughly ten points.

The combined PollyVote forecast is more conservative with respect to the extent of Biden’s lead. The PollyVote’s latest forecast is that Biden will gain 52.1% of the two-party vote compared to 47.9% for Trump, a roughly 4-point lead.

PollyVote thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Andrea Benjamin (University of Oklahoma)
  2. Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
  3. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  4. Sarah Fulton (Texas A&M University)
  5. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  6. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  7. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  8. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  9. Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)
  10. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  11. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
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