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Double-digit lead for Biden in latest expert survey


The Pollyvote has completed its fourth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from July 21-24, twelve political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by ten points.

The mean forecast is that Biden will garner 55% of the popular two-party vote, compared to 45% for President Trump. All twelve experts expected Biden to win the popular vote, with Biden’s lead ranging between five and sixteen points.

The combined PollyVote forecast is more conservative with respect to the extent of Biden’s lead. The PollyVote’s latest forecast is that Biden will gain 52.6% of the two-party vote compared to 47.4% for Trump, a roughly 5-point lead.

PollyVote thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Alexa Bankert (University of Georgia)
  2. Andrea Benjamin (University of Oklahoma)
  3. Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
  4. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  5. Sarah Fulton (Texas A&M University)
  6. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  7. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  8. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  9. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  10. Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)
  11. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  12. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
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