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Biden ahead by nearly 8 points in June expert survey


The Pollyvote has completed its third survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from June 18-22, thirteen political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by nearly eight points.

The mean forecast is that Biden will garner 53.8% of the popular two-party vote, compared to 46.2% for President Trump. All but one experts expected Biden to win the popular vote, while one predicts a tie.

Compared to the expert forecasts from last month, Biden’s lead has almost doubled. Back then, the experts predicted Biden to gain 52.2% of the vote.

The combined PollyVote forecast is a bit more conservative but also sees a clear advantage for Joe Biden. The PollyVote currently predicts Biden to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote.

PollyVote thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Alexa Bankert (University of Georgia)
  2. Andrea Benjamin (University of Oklahoma)
  3. John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
  4. Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
  5. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  6. Sarah Fulton (Texas A&M University)
  7. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  8. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  9. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  10. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  11. Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)
  12. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  13. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
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