The Pollyvote has completed its third survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from June 18-22, thirteen political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by nearly eight points.
The mean forecast is that Biden will garner 53.8% of the popular two-party vote, compared to 46.2% for President Trump. All but one experts expected Biden to win the popular vote, while one predicts a tie.
Compared to the expert forecasts from last month, Biden’s lead has almost doubled. Back then, the experts predicted Biden to gain 52.2% of the vote.
The combined PollyVote forecast is a bit more conservative but also sees a clear advantage for Joe Biden. The PollyVote currently predicts Biden to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote.
PollyVote thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely
- Alexa Bankert (University of Georgia)
- Andrea Benjamin (University of Oklahoma)
- John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
- Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
- George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
- Sarah Fulton (Texas A&M University)
- Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
- Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
- David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
- Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
- Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)
- Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
- Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)