The Pollyvote has completed its second survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from May 15-18, twelve political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by roughly four points.
The mean forecast is that Biden will garner 52.2% of the popular two-party vote, compared to 47.8% for President Trump. Eleven experts expect Biden to win the popular vote, while one expert predicts a Trump victory.
This forecast is nearly identical to last month, when the combined expert forecast was that Biden would receive 52.3% of the two-party vote.
PollyVote thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely
- Alexa Bankert (University of Georgia)
- Andrea Benjamin (University of Oklahoma)
- John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
- Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
- George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
- Sarah Fulton (Texas A&M University)
- Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
- David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
- Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
- Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)
- Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
- Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)