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Biden’ lead remains at 4 points in May expert survey


The Pollyvote has completed its second survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from May 15-18, twelve political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by roughly four points.

The mean forecast is that Biden will garner 52.2% of the popular two-party vote, compared to 47.8% for President Trump. Eleven experts expect Biden to win the popular vote, while one expert predicts a Trump victory.

This forecast is nearly identical to last month, when the combined expert forecast was that Biden would receive 52.3% of the two-party vote.

PollyVote thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Alexa Bankert (University of Georgia)
  2. Andrea Benjamin (University of Oklahoma)
  3. John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
  4. Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
  5. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  6. Sarah Fulton (Texas A&M University)
  7. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  8. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  9. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  10. Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)
  11. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  12. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
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