Results of a new poll carried out by Fort Hays St. University were released. The poll asked respondents from Kansas for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Fort Hays St. University poll results
Of those who responded, 34.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 58.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 1 to November 3 among 313 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-0.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 37.0% for Clinton and 63.0% for Trump. On July 21 Clinton received 38.0% in the Fort Hays St. University poll and Trump received only 62.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Kansas. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.6 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.