PPIC published the results of a new poll on November 7. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPIC poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 14 to October 23 among 1024 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 63.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. In comparison to her numbers in the PPIC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.