On October 25, Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 20 and October 22. The sample size was 625 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on September 14 Clinton received only 53.7%, while Trump received 46.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Minnesota polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to her numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.