WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll on November 7. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.