Results of a new poll carried out by JMC Analytics were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who answered the question, 35.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 among 905 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. On May 6 Clinton received only 40.9% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump received 59.1%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.