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Latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat


KSTP/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results




The results show that 42.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 29 to November 2. A total of 516 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. For comparison: 55.8% was obtained by Clinton in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on October 25, for Trump this number was only 44.2%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Minnesota polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.4%. Compared to his numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll Trump's poll average is 5.3 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 44.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote is 7.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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