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Final expert survey: Clinton will win by 4.4 points


The PollyVote team has completed its 13th and final survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between November 6 and 7, 12 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

As in previous rounds, all respondents expect a Clinton win. However, her lead has narrowed again compared to the results of the previous survey conducted a week ago.

Whereas, in late-October, the experts expected that Clinton will win the popular vote by more than 5.5 points, the new average forecast is half a percentage point lower, at 52.2% of the two-party vote (or about a 4.4-point margin). The individual forecasts ranged from 51.0% to 53.3%, with a standard deviation of only 0.8 points.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
  2. Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
  3. John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
  4. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  5. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  6. Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
  7. Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
  8. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  9. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  10. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  11. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.

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