The PollyVote team has completed its 13th and final survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between November 6 and 7, 12 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.
As in previous rounds, all respondents expect a Clinton win. However, her lead has narrowed again compared to the results of the previous survey conducted a week ago.
Whereas, in late-October, the experts expected that Clinton will win the popular vote by more than 5.5 points, the new average forecast is half a percentage point lower, at 52.2% of the two-party vote (or about a 4.4-point margin). The individual forecasts ranged from 51.0% to 53.3%, with a standard deviation of only 0.8 points.
Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely
- Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
- Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
- John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
- Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
- Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
- Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
- Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
- David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
- Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
- Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
- Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.
