Results of a new poll carried out by PPP (D) were published on November 5. The poll asked participants from West Virginia for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 30.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 57.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1. A total of 1201 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-2.8 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of West Virginia polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 65.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.8 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.