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West Virginia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead


The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 33.6% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, while Trump will end up with 66.4%. In comparison, on November 3, Clinton was predicted to gain 34.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of West Virginia econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 66.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 19.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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