WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 13 and October 16. The sample size was 502 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.