Virginia: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 53.4% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 46.6%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to garner 46.2% of the vote.

In Virginia, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Virginia econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. This value is 53.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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