On November 6, JMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 35.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24. A total of 905 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-3.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 40.9% was gained by Clinton in the JMC Analytics poll on May 6, for Trump this number was 59.1%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.6%. Relative to his numbers in the JMC Analytics poll Trump's poll average is 3.3 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.