On November 6, Fort Hays St. University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Kansas were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Fort Hays St. University poll results
Of those who answered the question, 27.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 11 to July 21 among 542 likely voters.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 38.0% for Clinton and 62.0% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.7 points below his polling numbers.