Texas: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 45.1% of the two-party vote share in Texas, whereas Trump will end up with 55.0%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Texas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.