Vanderbilt University published the results of a new poll on November 5. In this poll, participants from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt University poll results
The results show that 35.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 25 to May 11 with 1001 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.2 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Tennessee. Relative to his numbers in the Vanderbilt University poll Trump's poll average is 55.7 percentage points lower. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.