Results of a new poll conducted by Vanderbilt University were distributed on November 6. The poll asked participants from Tennessee for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Vanderbilt University poll results
According to the results, 33.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 19 and October 2. The sample size was 1000 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump. In the latest Vanderbilt University poll on May 11 Clinton obtained 44.3%, while Trump obtained only 55.7%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.