Tennessee: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 42.4% for Clinton, and 57.6% for Trump in Tennessee. In comparison, on November 3, Clinton was predicted to collect only 41.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Tennessee econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 57.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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