Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Reuters poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 31 to November 4, among a random sample of 2244 participants. Given the poll's error margin of +/-2.2 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. On November 3 Clinton obtained 53.0% in the Reuters poll and Trump obtained only 47.0%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Reuters poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.