Results of a new poll carried out by PPIC were distributed on November 6. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPIC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 14 to October 23, among a random sample of 1024 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 63.0%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the PPIC poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.