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PPIC poll in California: Trump behind by 26 points

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Results of a new poll carried out by PPIC were distributed on November 6. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

PPIC poll results
54

Clinton

28

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 14 to October 23, among a random sample of 1024 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 63.0%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the PPIC poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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