The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 47.5%. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was predicted to obtain 47.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.