Gravis published the results of a new poll on November 5. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between November 1 and November 2. The sample size was 1016 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 51.0% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on June 28, for Trump this result was 49.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.