Results of a new poll carried out by OpinionWorks were distributed on November 6. The poll asked participants from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30. A total of 754 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.5%. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.