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Oklahoma: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.0% for Clinton, and 65.0% for Trump in Oklahoma.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Oklahoma econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. This value is 65 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Oklahoma. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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