The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.