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Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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